Grayscale Believes That Bear Market Could Last For Eight Months
- Grayscale believes that the current bear market could last for around 8 months
- The firm believes that a Bitcoin cycle lasts for 4 years, or 1,275 days
The world’s biggest crypto asset management company Grayscale has come up with a new report that compares the ongoing crypto winter season with other market cycles in crypto history and predicts that the next bull run will arrive in 8 months or approximately 250 days.
In the recent report, the company analyzed that a general crypto cycle lasts for around four years, or approximately 1,275 days. Grayscale pointed out that the cycle duration could be determined using the realized price of bitcoin, which is calculated by dividing the total purchase price by the total number of Bitcoin in circulation.
The report finds that crypto market cycles have been taking longer each cycle to attain a new all-time high. Notably, in 2012, the market only took 603 days to touch ATH and increased to around 180 days for each of the upcoming cycles. This is confirmed by the fact that 2016 and 2020 took 786 days and 952 days to peak, respectively.
Moreover, it is interesting to further note that from peak to trough, the 2012 and 2016 crypto market cycles lasted around four years, or approximately 1,290 and 1,275 days, respectively. Moreover, it took 391 days for Bitcoin to fall 73% from ATH in 2012 and 364 days to fall 84% in 2016.
In the ongoing 2020 cycle, we are 1,206 days in as of July 20, according to the report, which means another four months are left in this cycle to finish when the Realized Price crosses back above the market price.
The study pointed out that BTC’s realized price went below the market price during mid-June, marking the start of the bear market.
Grayscale believes the crypto community could see a new BTC all-time high in around 222 days from July 12. This means this crypto winter could last for another 5-6 months in the form of downward or sideways price movement.
According to Grayscale, the current market is experiencing what analysts call “the worst bear market” in the crypto industry’s history. However, regardless of the severity of this market cycle, the company believes that the crypto industry will come out stronger in the end.
“Despite price declines, liquidations, and volatility, the crypto industry continues to build and innovate, pushing the boundaries of what is possible.”it stated.
In addition, the firm hinted that this point represents the best buying opportunity for the ongoing cycle.